Citi Field Homeruns

Tracking homeruns:
Comparing new and old fence dimensions.

Anonymous asked: What section for seating (i.e. 336, 337, etc.) have the most home runs landed in?

It seems like section 134 (20 per season) has the most home runs.  103, 303, and 304  are next (10-15 per season).  137 and 138 are roughly tied for fifth (10 per season).  Finally 135,136, and 139 and 302 (5 per season).  You wont see many in 334-339, 301 or 302, they would have to be bombs (maybe 1-2 per season).  You have practically no chance in 140-143 (your best bets there are Ike and Stanton), and I would be incredibly impressed if any go to the 400s or 500s.

In other words, sit down the line.

Unfortunately, the most likely place for a home run to land is the bullpen, and obviously you cannot sit there.

You hear a lot of people say players hit more home runs in warm air than in cool air, and more home runs in humid air than in dry air. Since I have four years of data to compare against, I decided to compare the number of home runs hit per month to the average temperature and humidity. I couldn’t find what I felt were reliable humidity data for Citi Field, so I went with precipitation data instead, thinking that precipitation would roughly correlate with humidity. The data base I am using hasn’t published information for August, and September isn’t even over yet, so I can only compare the first four months of the season.

I have created three images, containing a total of five charts.

The first image:

The first chart shows the temperature data. The middle line depicts the historic average temperature for Flushing, and each bar represents the average temperature for the month in each respective year above and below the historical average.

The second chart shows the number of home runs per month. The middle line represents the average number of home runs for each month, and each bar shows the number of home runs hit in that particular month in each respective year.

The third chart shows the precipitation. The middle line is the historic average of precipitation in each month, and each bar shows the actual precipitation of each respective month.


The second image:

A scatter plot of Home Runs as a function of Temperature. As the trending line shows, there is an insignificant negative correlation between temperatures and the number of home runs in any given month.

The third image:

A scatter plot of Home Runs as a function of Precipitation. The trending line shows a slight, albeit marginally significant, correlation between home runs and the amount of precipitation in any given month.


Going back to the first image, you can see that, roughly speaking, in any given month, the year with the most rain has the most home runs. For April, 2011 had the most rain and was the only month with above an average number of home runs. 2009 had slightly less rain, and the second most number of home runs. The only glaring exception to this general rule (and this is a limited data set) is July, where the month with the second most amount of rain had far and away the most home runs.


Again, this is only data on precipitation, not strictly humidity.

I left out August data in this chart, as I have already explained, but in August 2011 there was a huge, huge, huge amount of rainfall. Way above average. August also posted the most number of home runs out of any single month in 2011, more than June and July combined, both of which had below average rainfall.


So what can we make of this? Well, for one, temperature doesn’t seem to matter in Citi Field. At least not for the first four months of the season (which happens to include the second coolest and warmest months). Precipitation, which I am using to approximate humidity, does seem to have a slight effect. But, measuring strictly from precipitation as opposed to purely humidity data, it is a minor effect at best.

I have some analysis and more information coming over the course of the next few days, but here is the preliminary information for home runs in Citi Field this season (most are useless geeky stats, but perhaps interesting):

152 Total Home Runs.
85 by Opponents
67 by Mets.

107 Home runs went over the old walls.
3 Home runs went did not go over the original walls, but would have been home runs last season.
42 Home runs took advantage of the new park dimensions.


247 Runs scored via home runs.
141 by Opponents.
106 by Mets.

Regarding the home runs due to the new park dimensions:

Total 42
Opponents: 23
Mets: 19

Runs scored: 76
Opponents: 41
Mets: 35




David Wright hit the most home runs with 12. He also had the most RBIs with 20.

Ike Davis came in a close second place with 11 Home runs and 20 RBIs.

A total of 77 individual batters hit home runs in Citi Field.



Ike Davis gained the most home runs, and RBIs, from the new park dimensions with 4 home runs and 9 RBI.

A total of 30 individual batters hit home runs over the new fences.



Jon Niese allowed the most home runs, and runs scored, in Citi Field with 12 home runs and 18 runs. RA Dickey came in a close second with 11 home runs and 15 runs.

A total of 70 individual pitchers gave up home runs.

RA Dickey suffered the most from the new park dimensions, allowing 5 home runs and 7 runs.

A total of 30 pitchers suffered home runs from the new dimensions.



Of the 152 home runs, 82 were fastballs. That is a much higher percentage than I was expecting.

Not counting 0-2 counts, 83 of the 152 home runs came on the first two pitches of the at bat. Again, a much higher percentage than I expected.

There were fewer home runs with 2 outs than there were with 0 or 1 outs, but there were more runs scored as a result of 2 out home runs. (79 runs with 0 outs, 76 with 1 out, 92 with 2 outs).



More interesting (I think, anyway) information and data about home runs this season will be posted in the next few days. I will also post all of the data I have at some point, in case anyone wants it all.

149. Davis v Correia: 0 Outs, 3-2 Slider.150. Barajas v Dickey: One Out, 0-2 Knuckleball.151. Wright v Correia: One Out, 2-1 Fastball, 3 Runs.152. Presley v Rauch: One Out, 1-2 Fastball, 2 Runs.

149. Davis v Correia: 0 Outs, 3-2 Slider.
150. Barajas v Dickey: One Out, 0-2 Knuckleball.
151. Wright v Correia: One Out, 2-1 Fastball, 3 Runs.
152. Presley v Rauch: One Out, 1-2 Fastball, 2 Runs.

145. Alvarez v McHugh: Two Outs, 3-1 Fastball, 3 Runs.146. Turner v Rodriguez: 0 Outs, 3-2 Fastball, 2 Runs.147. Wright v Rodriguez: 0 Outs, 1-0 Change-Up.148. Jones v Rauch: Two Outs, 0-0 Fastball, 2 Runs.

145. Alvarez v McHugh: Two Outs, 3-1 Fastball, 3 Runs.
146. Turner v Rodriguez: 0 Outs, 3-2 Fastball, 2 Runs.
147. Wright v Rodriguez: 0 Outs, 1-0 Change-Up.
148. Jones v Rauch: Two Outs, 0-0 Fastball, 2 Runs.

143. Davis v McPherson: 0 Outs, 3-1 Fastball, 2 Runs.144. Davis v Karstens: Two Outs, 0-1 Change-Up, 3 Runs.

143. Davis v McPherson: 0 Outs, 3-1 Fastball, 2 Runs.
144. Davis v Karstens: Two Outs, 0-1 Change-Up, 3 Runs.

142. Wright v Nolasco: One Out, 0-0 Fastball, 2 Runs.

142. Wright v Nolasco: One Out, 0-0 Fastball, 2 Runs.

139. Bay v Buehrle: One Out, 1-0 Change-up, 2 runs.140. Hairston v Buehrle: 0 Outs, 3-1 Change-up.141. Buck v Rauch: 0 Outs, 1-0 Fastball, 3 runs.

139. Bay v Buehrle: One Out, 1-0 Change-up, 2 runs.
140. Hairston v Buehrle: 0 Outs, 3-1 Change-up.
141. Buck v Rauch: 0 Outs, 1-0 Fastball, 3 runs.